Risks from great-power competition

Abstract

Heightened competition between great powers poses significant direct and indirect risks to global stability. The direct risks include an increased likelihood of nuclear conflict, driven by the difficulty of deterrence among multiple nuclear states, the pursuit of “usable” nuclear weapons, and the erosion of non-proliferation norms. Competition also fuels proxy wars, making them longer, bloodier, and more prone to escalation. Indirectly, the focus on relative gains over shared benefits leads to a breakdown in global cooperation, hindering progress on transnational issues like pandemics and climate change. This results in policy fragmentation, increased restrictions on the activities of non-governmental organizations, and a weakening of international institutions. These dangers are amplified by rising nationalist ideologies and a general decay of trust in expertise. Counteracting these trends requires investing in new research on the mechanisms of cooperation, educating the public and policymakers on foreign policy risks, and developing alternative political frameworks that can overcome the failures of both traditional globalism and reactionary nationalism. – AI-generated abstract.