The Precipice revisited

Abstract

This lecture is an update to the existential risk landscape since the publication of The Precipice. It reviews four of the most serious risks to humanity: climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. Climate change risk is currently decreasing due to progress in controlling carbon emissions, and a better understanding of climate sensitivity is reducing the chances of extreme warming. However, the risk of nuclear war has increased due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a potential new arms race. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed weaknesses in global institutions and preparedness, but also spurred innovation in vaccine development. Further, there has been a significant increase in the public’s awareness of the dangers of advanced AI, leading to a shift in government policy and an emphasis on regulating AI development. While the overall picture of existential risk is complex, with some risks increasing and others decreasing, there is a growing awareness of the dangers and a developing movement to address these risks.