How the Trump whale correctly called the election

Abstract

The mystery trader known as “Théo” correctly predicted the results of the 2024 presidential election based on his analysis of polling data. He concluded that the polls were overestimating support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Theo made more than $30 million in profit after betting that Trump would win the popular vote and six of seven swing states. He argued that pollsters should use neighbor polls instead of traditional ones to avoid underestimating support for candidates. – AI-generated abstract.