An attack on the social discount rate

Abstract

Obligations to future generations are fundamentally rooted in the preservation of contemporary values and legacies. Cultural, scientific, and political achievements derive their current value from the expectation that they will endure beyond the present generation; therefore, ensuring the continued flourishing of the human race is essential to the meaningfulness of current human endeavors. Within this framework, the application of a social discount rate to evaluate long-term public projects is morally indefensible. The common justifications for discounting future costs and benefits—including probability, opportunity costs, projected increases in future wealth, and special relations—fail to provide a consistent moral basis for devaluing the further future. While remoteness in time may correlate with uncertainty, these factors should be evaluated independently rather than bundled into a singular temporal rate. Chronological distance is inherently neutral and does not justify the devaluation of future harms, especially when compensation is not provided. Beyond intergenerational ethics, the equitable composition of contemporary institutions remains a critical policy concern. The transition to an all-volunteer military force has resulted in a significant, unforeseen increase in the proportion of minority enlisted personnel, challenging initial projections and requiring a reassessment of the social and racial balance within the armed services. – AI-generated abstract.