On collapse risk (C-risk)

Abstract

The mainstream of effective altruist thought has undergone a conceptual evolution towards longtermist notions and “safeguarding the future”. Nick Bostrom’s work on existential risks laid some of the foundations of “longtermism” and the valuing of the continued existence of the human race as a generator of positive experiences. This has led to a focus on the avoidance of existential risks, which I believe to be relatively narrow given the range of competing risks that exist. Among those the most salient and of greatest cost to the welfare of the long-term future is a class of potential events that result in the reversion of human existence to a degraded scientific and technological understanding. Largely due to advances in these fields, we have developed healthcare and social systems to allow for a much greater quality of life than in the past, so such a regression would also imply a significant loss of life and/or quality adjusted life years (QALYs) during the period of reduction and for many future generations. Many more QALYs will have been missed due to the failure of our society to progress at its current rate. This article will make a case for why we should care about why collapse risks (C-risks) are a neglected area in EA thinking and priority based on the expected outcomes from a longtermist perspective.