Catastrophic risk, uncertainty, and agency analysis

Abstract

This proposal suggests three changes to federal policymaking: amending Circular A-4 to improve the assessment of catastrophic and existential risks, establishing broad principles for their evaluation and mitigation, and including language in an executive order for agency reporting on these risks. The amendment promotes robust, balanced benefit-cost analysis over the precautionary principle, acknowledging the uncertainty involved. The broad, non-binding principles aim to prioritize such risks across agencies. The executive order would mandate public reports to garner congressional and political attention. These measures seek to ensure agencies do not neglect catastrophic risks and properly evaluate related policies. – AI-generated abstract.