Lewis F. Richardson's mathematical theory of war

Abstract

Developed over a period of some thirty years, Lewis F. Richardson’s approach to a general theory of large-scale conflict, although treating a wide variety of subject matter, has a sufficiently unified theoretical basis to be called a &dquo;system.&dquo; That is to say, the assumptions underlying the theory are sufficiently lucid and explicit and the derivation of the conclusions is sufficiently rigorous to warrant a critique of the entire system through the examination of its underlying base. This base has three aspects, which will be examined separately. These are (1) a philosophical aspect, dealing with the nature of large-scale events; (2) a psychological-ethical aspect, dealing with motivations and goals; and (3) a technical aspect, dealing with scientific strategy, that is, the choice of data, the interpretation of data, the invention of theoretical models, and methods for testing the models. First, it is important to point out that all three aspects of Richardson’s system-its philosophy, its psychological components, and its methods-have been developed elsewhere. The originality of his contribution is simply in the lengths to which he has gone in combining them into an extensive system.