The doomsday argument

Abstract

The Doomsday Argument (DA) is a Bayesian argument that aims to raise our personal probabilities for human extinction. It suggests that our birth-ranks in human history are unusually early and that this makes imminent doom more likely. DA has been widely criticized since its inception, with objections including the reference class problem, the ‘supernova’ objection, and the claim that it requires determinism. However, some have proposed reformulations of DA that attempt to address these objections, and the debate continues. – AI-generated abstract.