How likely is a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia?

Abstract

The likelihood of a US-Russia nuclear exchange, both intentional and accidental, is explored in this analysis. Historical evidence, expert opinions, and prediction data suggest about a 1.1% probability of nuclear war each year, with the chances of a US-Russia nuclear exchange at around 0.38% per year. Intricacies of geopolitics, relations between the US and Russia, and the deterrence provided by potential mutually assured destruction are discussed. Furthermore, the analysis evaluates the risk of accidental nuclear warfare, considering numerous instances in history where near-miss situations occurred. The role of technology in increasing or decreasing these risks, such as digital vulnerabilities, is also highlighted. In addition to providing the numbers, the study discusses the factors influencing these estimates, emphasizing their complexity and potential uncertainties. – AI-generated abstract.