What is the likelihood that civilizational collapse would cause technological stagnation? (outdated research)

Abstract

The probability of technological stagnation following a civilizational collapse is explored, considering the likelihood of repeating the agricultural and industrial revolutions. The author argues that a re-industrialization is possible but with potential delays due to limited access to resources and the need to relearn crucial knowledge and skills. The factors considered include natural and physical capital, human capital (knowledge, education, population, institutions, and cultural norms and values), and the impact of the demonstration effect. The author concludes that re-industrialization is achievable but potentially significantly slower than the initial industrialization process, with a range of 100 to 33,000 years. The author considers several factors that could make this pessimistic outlook less likely, including the existence of books, the potential for rapid population growth, and the persistence of cultural values and institutions. However, several risks remain, including the possibility of falling into a food productivity trap, losing critical knowledge and skills, and the unforeseen consequences of global catastrophes. – AI-generated abstract