Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality

Abstract

This podcast episode discusses the potential impacts of artificial intelligence, specifically large language models (LLMs), on the labor market. LLMs’ general-purpose nature, low adoption cost, and ability to facilitate other technologies’ integration suggest faster and broader economic impacts than previous technological advancements. However, regulation, lobbying by affected professions, human resistance to change, and companies’ risk aversion could slow adoption. While LLMs may expose a large percentage of the workforce to some degree of automation, particularly higher-earning jobs, mass unemployment is not inevitable. Economic history demonstrates that automation often creates new, more human-intensive jobs. Additionally, individuals may choose to work fewer hours, and some tasks may remain uniquely human, particularly those requiring social skills, trust-building, and complex management. While the long-term effects remain uncertain, the discussion emphasizes that even without further AI breakthroughs, current LLMs could fuel substantial economic growth. – AI-generated abstract.