Modeling the human trajectory

Abstract

This article explores the long-term trajectory of human economic growth by analyzing historical data and employing mathematical models. The author, using gross world product (GWP) as a proxy for economic activity, demonstrates that historical GWP growth exhibits a superexponential pattern, meaning that the rate of growth increases with the size of the economy. This observation leads to a counterintuitive implication: if the observed trend continues, GWP will reach infinity in finite time. The author explores this paradox by incorporating stochasticity into the model, which captures the inherent randomness of historical events. Despite the introduction of randomness, the model still predicts an inevitable explosion of GWP. The author then investigates multivariate models, which incorporate factors like land, labor, capital, and technology, demonstrating that the superexponential growth is rooted in conventional economic theory when technological advance is endogenous, meaning that investment in technology itself drives further economic growth. Ultimately, the author concludes that the predictions of infinity, while mathematically plausible, are unrealistic and should be viewed as indications of the inherent instability of the human system. – AI-generated abstract