AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?

Abstract

Majorities of AI experts believe there is a real possibility of developing human-level artificial intelligence (HLMI) within several decades; some believe it will exist much sooner. Surveys of AI experts reveal wide disagreement on the specific timeline of HLMI, with some believing it may never be developed and others predicting its development within just a few decades. Most experts favor a middle ground, with half of the experts surveyed expecting HLMI to exist by 2061 and 90% expecting it within the next 100 years. However, different surveys vary in the definitions of HLMI, leading to discrepancies in the estimates. Across three surveys, many experts predicted a high probability of HLMI development within the next few decades. Ajeya Cotra, an AI researcher for Open Philanthropy, estimated that HLMI could become possible and affordable by 2050. While there is no consensus among AI experts, these surveys highlight the widely held belief that transformative AI could be developed within our lifetimes, with implications for various aspects of society. – AI-generated abstract.