Eight high-level uncertainties about global catastrophic and existential risk

Abstract

I wanted to write a quick overview of overarching topics in global catastrophic and existential risk where we do not know much yet. Each of these topics deserves a lot of attention on their own, and this is simply intended as a non-comprehensive overview. I use the term ‘hazard’ to indicate an event that could lead to adverse outcomes, and the term ‘risk’ to indicate the product of a hazard’s probability times its negative consequences. Although I believe not all uncertainties are of equal importance (some might be more important by orders of magnitude), I discuss them in no particular order. Furthermore, the selection of uncertainties is the result of what has been on the forefront of my mind and does not reflect the 8 most important uncertainties.