The problem of collective ruin

Abstract

The article introduces the concept of the “problem of collective ruin” in the context of existential risk and small probabilities. Using the idea of the gambler’s ruin, it argues that individual decision-makers may opt for actions that carry a low but non-negligible risk of causing existential catastrophe. The article highlights the difference between local expected value maximization and the presence of an absorbing state, resembling a Prisoner’s Dilemma or Tragedy of the Commons. It concludes with a lesson that advises against any action that could increase the risk of existential catastrophe without any obvious positive flow-through effects to outweigh the risk. – AI-generated abstract.