Monte Carlo model of brain emulation development

Abstract

This paper presents a Monte Carlo model of the emergence of whole brain emulation (WBE) technology, aiming to provide a rough estimate of the timeline and likelihood of its development. The model considers the necessary computational requirements, funding constraints, scanning technology developments, neuroscience understanding, and their interdependent relationships. The simulation results suggest that if WBE is feasible, there is a significant chance of its arrival before 2064, with earlier arrivals more likely to require less sophisticated emulation resolutions and later ones more likely to face computational challenges. Moreover, it is found that the technology most responsible for delaying WBE varies depending on the scenario, and that extreme overshoots in emulation capacity are possible. The model highlights the need for early monitoring and preparation for the potential societal impacts of WBE. – AI-generated abstract.