Survivorship curves and existential risk

Abstract

This paper employs survival analysis tools to explore existential risks to humanity and potential ways to mitigate them. It presents a simple model with a constant risk of extinction, showing that the expected survival curve is an exponential decay. The paper also examines correlated risks, population growth, and transition risks and discusses how they can affect the survival curve. It concludes that survival curves can be useful for understanding existential risks and that reducing ongoing risks early is important. – AI-generated abstract.