Who should we fear more: biohackers, disgruntled postdocs, or bad governments? A simple risk chain model of biorisk

Abstract

The biological risk landscape continues to evolve with advancements in synthetic biology and biotechnology. This development raises a key question: which actors pose the greatest biosecurity risk- those who are low-resourced but numerous, or those who are high-powered but few? This paper introduces a simple risk chain model of biosecurity, considering the interaction between actor intent and resources – defined as ‘power’ – and the necessary steps towards a biological event. The model suggests that, due to the power-law distribution of actor power, a powerful actor would likely be the cause of a biorisk event despite less resourced actors being far more numerous. However, as the number of necessary steps decreases, less powerful actors could become a more likely source of a given event. The results highlight the need for biosecurity risk assessment and health security strengthening initiatives to consider actor power in their approach. – AI-generated abstract.