Georgia on my mind: effectively flipping the senate

Abstract

There are many plausible EA reasons to prefer the Democrats have control of the Senate. One example is that if the Republicans have a majority it is extremely unlikely we will get a serious climate bill. Of course, even if the Democrats have 50 seats and the tie-breaker they may not get rid of the filibuster and will have serious trouble maintaining 100% of their caucus. But the expected value still seems high to many EAs. This is an unusually high leverage situation where two races in January will decide control of the Senate.