Nuclear expert comment on Samotsvety nuclear risk forecast

Abstract

On March 10th, the Samotsvety forecasting team published a Forum post assessing the risk that a London resident would be killed in a nuclear strike “in light of the war in Ukraine and fears of nuclear escalation.” It recommended against evacuating major cities because the risk of nuclear death was extremely low. However, the reasoning behind the forecast was questionable. The following is intended as a constructive critique to improve the forecast quality of nuclear risk, heighten policymaker responsiveness to probabilistic predictions, and ultimately reduce the danger of nuclear war.