On assessing the risk of nuclear war

Abstract

The risk of nuclear war has long been a central concern in national security policy, though its precise quantification is rarely undertaken. This book presents a methodological framework for assessing nuclear war risk, examining the utility and limitations of four complementary approaches to likelihood assessment: historical case study, elicitation of expert knowledge, probabilistic risk assessment, and complex systems theory. The book also explores the physical consequences of nuclear weapons use, focusing on uncertainties related to radiation, blast, fallout, and electromagnetic pulse effects. It then addresses the equally important issue of intangible consequences, including the social, psychological, political, and economic impacts of nuclear war. Finally, the book considers the challenge of integrating knowledge derived from these diverse approaches. – AI-generated abstract