Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022

Abstract

The February 2022 edition of the Forecasting Newsletter provides a comprehensive update on the current state and future plans of different forecasting and prediction platforms. A critical revelation is the FTX Foundation’s potential donation of millions for forecasting entities, showing particular interest in prediction markets, long-term forecasting, AI development trajectory, and key projects that can influence significant global decisions. The newsletter also relays the shift of Polymarket to using the Uniswap 3 algorithm, and its adoption of the UMA protocol for market resolution potentially showing foresight in platform selections. In addition, Manifold Markets’ innovative features, such as support for free-form answers and a thoroughly documented API, are discussed. Amid other developments, the Newsletter mentions Cultivate Labs and Amazon’s hiring initiatives and an anonymous benefactor’s increase in funding for the newsletter’s microgrants program. Underscoring the relevance of the global geopolitical scenario, the newsletter brings attention to the implications of the war in Ukraine on forecasting and prediction market trends. – AI-generated abstract.