Samotsvety nuclear risk update October 2022

Abstract

For ≤ 1 month staggering times between each step. Event Conditional on previous stepUnconditional probabilityRussia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next month—5.3%Nuclear conflict scales beyond Ukraine in the next month after the initial nuclear weapon use2.5%0.13%London gets hit, one month after the first non-Ukraine nuclear bomb is used?14%0.02%. For ≤ 1 year staggering times between each step. Event Conditional on previous stepUnconditional probabilityRussia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next year—16% Nuclear conflict scales beyond Ukraine in the next year after the initial nuclear weapon use9.6%1.6%London gets hit, one year after the first non-Ukraine nuclear bomb is used?23%0.36%.