Forecasting quantum computing
Effective Altruism Forum, April 10, 2021
Abstract
Quantum computing exploits quantum physics to accelerate certain computations. While only small quantum computers exist, the field is rapidly advancing. This work explores the applications and potential risks of quantum computing, with an emphasis on cryptonalysis. The main application of quantum computing is predicted to be in breaking current public key cryptography, rendering online security vulnerable. However, large-scale quantum computers are unlikely to be developed within the next decade. By that time, post-quantum cryptography is expected to be widely adopted. More speculative applications in machine learning and biotechnology are discussed, but current theoretical foundations do not suggest they will be promising. – AI-generated abstract