[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors

Abstract

This article estimates when artificial general intelligence (AGI) will appear, defined as that which has a transformative impact on society similar to the industrial revolution. The author grounds the estimate in contemporary evidence rather than speculation, anchoring it to the computational resources needed for AGI to model the human brain and perform inference. The article also considers economic constraints and willingness to invest in AGI. It presents aligned, unaligned, and neutral views before concluding that AGI may appear around 2050. – AI-generated abstract.