Thoughts on whether we're living at the most influential time in history

Abstract

Buck argues that influential time is not necessarily hinged to long futures and that the outside-view argument claims of longtermism are flawed. He proposes that there are hingey early times in human history, which updates us against the belief that early humans are hugely influential. He discusses inductive arguments, patient philanthropy, and simulation arguments. Buck concludes that there are interesting arguments to be had about how we consider the future, but that the hinge of history hypothesis, as written, is seriously flawed and should be revised. – AI-generated abstract.