Probability and politics

Abstract

Examining the effectiveness of political advocacy and charitable spending within the political spectrum, this work explores the challenges of quantifying the potential impact and value of this spending. It delves into decision-making about low-probability, high-payoff actions, and the challenges of estimating both the large potential effect and the small likelihood of such actions leading to a desired change. Analyzing cost per vote ratios and the probability of marginal votes swaying an election, the work concludes that voting in competitive jurisdictions or swing states during closely-fought elections typically gives a higher return than comparable loans or donations to political campaigns. The cost-effectiveness of supporting political change is further complicated by factors such as the type of decision theory applied. – AI-generated abstract.