Envisioning a world immune to global catastrophic biological risks

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted both civilization’s vulnerability to novel diseases and its unprecedented technological capacity to contain them. Logical extrapolation of DNA/RNA sequencing technology, physical barriers and sterilization, and robotics indicates that any new natural pandemic or biological weapon can be immediately contained at increasingly affordable prices. These measures are agnostic to pathogen type, have low dual-use concerns, and can be established beforehand, suggesting an end to the risk period for global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs). Rather than viewing GCBRs as an indefinite risk that limits civilization’s life expectancy, they should be considered as part of a possible “time of perils.” The analysis examines advancing diagnostic technology for cheap universal pathogen detection, the potential for blanket coverage of flexible testing to control human-to-human transmission, and the feasibility of implementing BSL-4 inspired safety standards in rich countries. Combined with the low dual-use risk of these defensive measures, this suggests the existence of an attainable zero-biorisk state, particularly if artificial intelligence development this century helps deploy robust countermeasures before serious biothreats emerge. - AI-generated abstract