Wanted: A Stupid-Proof Strategy For America
The Scholar's Stage, October 30, 2015
Abstract
A viable American foreign policy must be simple and robust enough to be implemented by a political system constrained by electoral cycles, partisanship, and a general lack of specialized expertise among its decision-makers. Such a “StupidProof” strategy is necessary because the system cannot sustain complex approaches, whether they be retrenchment or the proposed alternative of “deep engagement.” The argument that deep engagement is necessary to cultivate local knowledge is flawed, as historical and contemporary evidence shows dominant powers consistently fail to achieve such nuanced understanding. Imperial Rome and China’s interventions in peripheral territories often inadvertently created or strengthened the very threats they aimed to contain. Likewise, decades of modern American global engagement have not prevented repeated strategic surprises, demonstrating that this approach does not reliably produce the required regional acumen. A successful foreign policy must therefore be designed to operate effectively without depending on a level of expertise the American system is structurally ill-equipped to develop. – AI-generated abstract.
