Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction

Abstract

Superforecasting, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, explores the habits of mind that enable exceptional prediction. Building on a decade of research and a massive forecasting tournament, the authors reveal that while most people are terrible forecasters, some individuals consistently outperform even experts. These “superforecasters” demonstrate that effective prediction isn’t about special skills or access to classified information, but rather about gathering evidence from diverse sources, thinking probabilistically, working collaboratively, and acknowledging errors. The book presents a practical guide for improving forecasting ability in various domains, from business and finance to politics and everyday life, offering a roadmap to harnessing the power of accurate prediction.