Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives

Abstract

There is nothing new about counterfactual inference. Historians have been doing it for at least two thousand years. Counterfactuals fueled the grief of Tacitus when he pondered what would have happened if Germanicus had lived to become Emperor: “Had he been the sole arbiter of events, had he held the powers and title of King, he would have outstripped Alexander in military fame as far as he surpassed him in gentleness, in self-command and in other noble qualities” (quoted in Gould 1969). Social scientists—from Max Weber (1949) to Robert Fogel (1964)—have also long been aware of the pivotal…