When do experts expect AGI to arrive?

Abstract

Several groups offer predictions about the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Leaders of AI companies, incentivized by optimistic projections, estimate AGI within 2-5 years. AI researchers, surveyed in 2023, provide a median estimate of a 25% chance of AGI in the early 2030s and 50% by 2047, though their specific timelines for task automation appear inconsistent. Metaculus forecasters, aggregating predictions, suggest a 25% chance of AGI by 2027 and 50% by 2031, yet their definition of AGI potentially conflates robotic and cognitive capabilities. Superforecasters, specializing in near-term predictions, offered more distant timelines in 2022, with a median estimate of 25% chance of AGI by 2047. A subset of superforecasters, Samotsvety, provided more near-term estimations (~28% by 2030), but their focus on AI introduces selection bias. Synthesizing these predictions, AGI before 2030 is considered a realistic possibility by experts, though longer timelines are also prevalent. – AI-generated abstract.