Is climate change the world’s biggest problem? And what can we do about it?

Abstract

Human-caused climate change, driven by fossil fuel burning since the Industrial Revolution, has increased global temperatures by approximately 1°C, primarily after 1980. This warming trend, projected to reach 2.5–3°C by 2100 under a medium-low emissions scenario, has already caused rising sea levels, increased catastrophic weather events, and air pollution-related deaths. While the most extreme climate tipping points are deemed scientifically improbable, less extreme tipping points, including rapid warming, regional droughts, disruptions to ocean currents and monsoons, remain plausible. Although climate change negatively impacts agriculture, global food catastrophe is unlikely due to potential positive effects like newly available land at higher latitudes and ongoing agricultural adaptation. Climate change’s effect on conflict remains contested, though other factors are currently more significant drivers. Compared to other global catastrophic risks, climate change is relatively tractable, possessing a clear success metric (emissions reduction) and established success stories, notably decarbonization of electricity systems via nuclear power and energy efficiency measures. However, substantial resources are already allocated to climate change, though certain sectors like industry, transport, carbon removal, and agriculture remain neglected within climate philanthropy. Promising solutions include clean energy innovation (particularly for neglected technologies), preventing carbon lock-in in emerging economies, and promoting effective policy leadership. – AI-generated abstract.