Superforecasting long-term risks and climate change

Abstract

In light of the publication of Dr. William MacAskill’s book, What We Owe the Future, the Forethought Foundation employed the services of Good Judgment Superforecasters to predict the impacts of rising global temperatures on key issues like drought, floods, food availability, and other severe weather events. The Superforecasters provide a pessimistic view of the political will to address climate change, asserting that CO2 emissions are likely to increase as the majority of the world continues utilizing cheaper yet detrimental energy sources. By 2100, it’s predicted that the Amazon biome will morph approximately 30% more into savannah. Adaptability-wise, they posit that humans will adjust to the increasing cases of drought, floods, and hot weather. This adjustment, however, comes with massive displacement, and potentially immense suffering. While modifications to agricultural practices could offset some of the damage, the harms of climate change are still likely to be disproportionately severe among low-income countries’ populations. Even though not forecasting human extinction by 2100 or 2300, Superforecasters acknowledge the potential for significant harm and even billions of deaths from climate change, necessitating coordinated efforts to lessen emissions. Ten experts were involved in scrutinizing and providing feedback on these forecasts to enrich their validity – AI-generated abstract.