Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years

Abstract

While policy discussions often focus on sea-level rise by the 21st century, a longer-term perspective is crucial due to the lasting impact of carbon emissions. This study, using the LOVECLIMv1.3 Earth system model, projects global sea-level changes over the next 10,000 years based on various carbon emission scenarios. The model simulates the melting of land ice and steric sea effects, finding that even after emissions cease, sea level will continue to rise for millennia due to the thermal inertia of the climate system and the slow response of ice sheets. The Greenland ice sheet is projected to nearly disappear across all scenarios, while the Antarctic ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise varies significantly, reaching up to 27 meters for the highest-forcing scenario, where methane emissions are included. Overall, the study highlights the potential for substantial long-term sea-level rise, with global mean sea level projected to increase between 9.2 and 37 meters after 10,000 years. The model uncertainty for the highest-forcing scenario does not exclude the possibility of complete Antarctic ice sheet melt within this timeframe.