When Machines Improve Machines

Abstract

The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), machines capable of performing any cognitive task as well as humans, is often thought to lead to an “intelligence explosion.” This scenario posits a positive feedback loop where increasingly intelligent machines design even smarter machines, accelerating technological advancement beyond human capacity. However, this presumed radical shift is less significant than it appears. Current technological progress already relies on a complex interplay of tools, including software with superhuman computational abilities, used collaboratively by humans to create new technologies. Existing large tech companies like Intel, employing teams of humans and computers in a self-improving feedback loop, demonstrate this dynamic. While such companies contribute to overall economic growth, their individual growth rates typically decelerate as they mature, countering the notion of runaway advancement. Therefore, the question of an intelligence explosion becomes analogous to the question of an economic explosion. Although rapid economic growth has occurred historically, recent economic and hardware growth trends do not necessarily indicate a future growth explosion. – AI-generated abstract.