Some reasons not to expect a growth explosion

Abstract

Global economic growth is expected by some to accelerate drastically in the future, potentially reaching orders of magnitude higher than current rates. However, mainstream economic forecasts generally predict a decline in growth rates, citing factors such as declining rates of innovation and progress in science. Moore’s Law, a key driver of growth in information technology, is nearing its theoretical limit. Furthermore, the growth in supercomputer performance has been decelerating, mirroring the slowdown in Moore’s Law. Many existing technologies are already operating at near-maximum efficiency, limited by fundamental physical constraints. While counterarguments point to the exponential growth in AI compute between 2012 and 2018, this trend has not persisted, and the associated costs have proven unsustainable. Diffusion models predicting higher growth rates may not accurately reflect real-world trends, as evidenced by their poor fit with recent growth data. Therefore, while accelerated growth remains a possibility, multiple factors suggest that a growth explosion is unlikely in the near future. – AI-generated abstract.