Radical uncertainty about outcomes need not imply (similarly) radical uncertainty about strategies

Abstract

Outcome uncertainty, especially on long timescales, is vast. However, high outcome uncertainty does not necessarily entail similarly high strategic uncertainty. Analogies with games, competitions, and projects demonstrate that robustly beneficial strategies and heuristics can be identified despite significant outcome uncertainty. For example, in chess, despite the vast number of possible outcomes, effective strategies exist. This pattern holds across various domains, from politics and sports to business and engineering. While acknowledging the increased uncertainty associated with impartial aims concerning all sentient beings, it is argued that some reasonably robust strategies can still be identified. Three such strategies for reducing suffering are proposed: movement and capacity building, promoting concern for suffering, and promoting cooperation. It is crucial to avoid both overconfidence and excessive hesitation, pursuing promising strategies while acknowledging the inherent strategic uncertainty. – AI-generated abstract.