The limits of prediction-or, how I learned to stop worrying about black swans and love analysis

Abstract

Intelligence analysts have it rough. Their plight extends beyond the old adage of being only responsible for intelligence failures while the policymakers they inform collect praise for their supposed unilateral policy successes. This certainly irritates some, but what truly imperils intelligence analysts is something that goes much deeper. The key struggle for intelligence analysts is that what they are able to produce and what their consumers think they can produce are often two different things. In a sense, to borrow from former CIA Deputy Director for Intelligence Douglas MacEachin’s oft-repeated analogy, intelligence analysts are best at providing scouting reports on opposing teams, but policymakers are expecting to hear what the score of the game is going to be. So what do intelligence consumers want from intelligence analysts? The key struggle for intelligence analysts is that what they are able to produce and what their consumers think they can produce are often two different things.