Assessing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks \textbar Effective Altruism

Abstract

This talk discusses global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs), defined as biological events causing extraordinary widespread disaster beyond governmental and private sector management capabilities. The 1918 influenza pandemic, which caused 50 to 100 million deaths, serves as a benchmark for GCBR severity. Potential GCBR scenarios include biowarfare, bioterrorism, accidental or intentional release of engineered pathogens, ecosystem disruption eliminating food sources, and natural emergence of highly virulent and transmissible pathogens. The eradication of smallpox, led by Dr. D.A. Henderson, demonstrates humanity’s potential to combat biological threats through leadership, ingenuity, and simple tools like the bifurcated needle. The Center for Health Security is working to define GCBRs, improve risk communication, analyze pandemic pathogen characteristics, and enhance detection capabilities. They are also researching technologies for pandemic prevention and response, and conducting exercises like Clade X, which simulated a catastrophic pandemic causing 150 million deaths and highlighted the need for rapid vaccine development, response planning, and global cooperation. Potential ways for individuals to contribute to GCBR mitigation include research, policy change, and raising awareness. – AI-generated abstract.