Carl Shulman on the common-sense case for existential risk work and its practical implications

Abstract

Carl Shulman argues that reducing existential risks, such as those posed by advanced artificial intelligence, engineered pandemics, and nuclear war, should be a high priority, even for those who do not place a special value on the long-term future. Shulman claims that the risk of a disaster that kills billions of people alive today is alarmingly high and that such risks can be reduced at a reasonable cost. Shulman draws on examples from the history of existential risk, such as the successful US program to track asteroids and comets and the Soviet bioweapons program, to illustrate how even unlikely events can be averted with sufficient effort and political will. However, Shulman cautions that government institutions often fail to adequately prepare for unprecedented scenarios due to a combination of factors, including a lack of robust evidence, a preference for risk-averse decision-making, and a tendency towards conformity. He emphasizes the need for more robust scientific research and better communication to improve our understanding of existential risks and motivate policymakers to take action. – AI-generated abstract