Clay Graubard & Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine

Abstract

This podcast discusses the forecasting of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The episode features two guests, both prominent figures in the forecasting community: a Superforecaster and a geopolitical forecasting expert. The guests recount their pre-invasion predictions, discussing their reasoning, the factors they considered, and their perspectives on how accurately they predicted the course of the conflict. They discuss their prior estimates of the probability of a Russian invasion, the performance of the Russian military, and the risk of the use of nuclear weapons. Both guests are skeptical of the use of overly confident probabilities, especially in the context of the high uncertainty of the conflict. They also discuss the respective roles of domain expertise and forecasting skills, as well as the value of having both in making accurate predictions. The guests conclude by discussing the most interesting remaining questions about the conflict, as well as offering advice for those looking to get involved in the forecasting community. – AI-generated abstract