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Robert Wiblin and Keiran Harris Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion online In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence. They cover: • Some crazy anomalies in the historical record of civilisational progress • Whether we should think about technology from an evolutionary perspective • Whether we ought to expect war to make a resurgence or continue dying out • Why we can’t end up living like The Jetsons • Whether stagnation or cyclical recurring futures seem very plausible • What it means that the rate of increase in the economy has been increasing • Whether violence is likely between humans and powerful AI systems • The most likely reasons for Rob and Ian to be really wrong about all of this • How professional historians react to this sort of talk • The future of Ian’s work • Plenty more

Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

Robert Wiblin and Keiran Harris

80,000 Hours, October 23, 2023

Abstract

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence. They cover: • Some crazy anomalies in the historical record of civilisational progress • Whether we should think about technology from an evolutionary perspective • Whether we ought to expect war to make a resurgence or continue dying out • Why we can’t end up living like The Jetsons • Whether stagnation or cyclical recurring futures seem very plausible • What it means that the rate of increase in the economy has been increasing • Whether violence is likely between humans and powerful AI systems • The most likely reasons for Rob and Ian to be really wrong about all of this • How professional historians react to this sort of talk • The future of Ian’s work • Plenty more