Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

Abstract

Effective climate action should prioritize avoiding worst-case, high-temperature scenarios due to the non-linear nature of climate damages, where each additional degree of warming causes disproportionately more harm. Standard approaches focusing solely on maximizing expected emission reductions, often via mature technologies like solar and wind, may be suboptimal. High-damage futures likely correlate with scenarios where these popular renewables underperform. A more robust strategy involves hedging against this possibility by supporting a portfolio of currently less fashionable but potentially crucial technologies, such as enhanced geothermal systems, advanced nuclear reactors, and carbon capture. Near-term local emission reductions may even be negatively correlated with long-term global impact if they rely only on deploying mature technologies. Greater leverage can often be achieved by fostering innovation and cost reduction in early-stage technologies, thereby influencing global adoption patterns over decades, much like early German solar subsidies drove down global costs despite limited initial local impact. – AI-generated abstract.