Base rate fallacy

Abstract

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy. If presented with related base rate information (i.e., general information on prevalence) and specific information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case), people tend to ignore the base rate in favor of the individuating information, rather than correctly integrating the two.Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.