Interpretations of "probability"

Abstract

This article discusses different interpretations of probability, including propensity, frequentist, and subjective (Bayesian) interpretations. Propensity views probability as an inherent property of an event, while the frequentist interpretation defines it as the frequency of an event within a similar class of events. The subjective interpretation posits that uncertainty resides in the observer’s mind, representing a degree of belief. The article argues against the propensity interpretation in deterministic scenarios, viewing it as a mind projection fallacy. It then contrasts frequentist and subjective interpretations using the example of predicting election outcomes. While frequentists argue that probabilities cannot be assigned to single events, subjectivists utilize prediction markets and betting odds to estimate likelihoods. The article further explores how subjectivism incorporates both frequentist base rates and propensity-like uncertainty arising from physical laws like the Schrödinger equation. Finally, it advocates for a flexible approach to probability, employing whichever interpretation and statistical tool is most appropriate for a given situation. – AI-generated abstract.