Potentially great ways forecasting can improve the longterm future

Abstract

The value of forecasting as a means of improving the long-term future is discussed, particularly in relation to effective altruism. Potential applications of forecasting are proposed, including its use to amplify research, improve grantmaking, serve as an outreach intervention, train and recruit talent, and eventually achieve high-quality, calibrated, long-range forecasting. The paper suggests that broad forecasting could be used as a general epistemic intervention to improve society’s thinking and reasoning, although the author expresses some concerns about the potential negative consequences of this. – AI-generated abstract.